The Bracket Wizard's Early 2022 NCAA Tournament Predictions

The Bracket Wizard’s Early 2022 Predictions

March has officially arrived! Excitement for this year’s NCAA Tournament is starting to boil over. This year's field is full of championship quality teams, dark horse teams that will surely break some brackets, and cinderella candidates that will be the talk of the tournament. Let’s get the madness going!

So how will the bracket unfold? The Bracket Wizard is here to make some early predictions for how the tournament will unfold and to answer some key questions. Questions such as: which teams are most likely to win the 2022 NCAA Tournament? What high seeded teams are vulnerable? What are likely dark horse teams? What are cinderella teams? The Bracket Wizard is here to provide insight to these questions! Projected seeds for a team listed below is based on Joe Lunardi’s projected bracket.

One of these Teams will Win the 2022 NCAA Tournament

Gonzaga Bulldogs- Projected Seed: 1

The number one projected overall seed in the tournament, and for good reason. Gonzaga is the top rated team on BPI in the nation. Gonzaga has the number 2 rated offense in the nation, and the number 6 rated defense in the country according to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. They also boast the number 1 NET ranking, which is used for seeding by the NCAA tournament committee. The only thing holding Gonzaga up, which is the case almost every year, is that they don’t have a strong strength of schedule. At the time of writing, they have the 107th ranked strength of schedule in the nation. They haven’t played anyone that would be considered tier 1 (although San Francisco could make a case here) since they beat up on Texas Tech in December. This team, however, has experience from last year’s tournament when they made the final game. This team is good, if not better, than that team.

Kentucky Wildcats- Projected seed: 2

Kentucky has the third best NET ranking in the nation, which means that it SHOULD get a number 1 seed instead of a 2 seed. This is a number 1 seed, don’t let their actual seed fool you. Kentucky doesn’t have any red flags from traditional historical stats from teams who have lost early in previous tournaments. Kentucky has an elite, lottery pick worthy, guard in Ty Ty Washington. They also have one of the most underrated guards in the nation in Kellen Grady. They also have Oscar Tshiwebe, who is a national player of the year candidate. Kentucky is very good, and has played a tough schedule all year.

Duke Blue Devils- Projected seed: 2

Duke is the 12th ranked team according to the NET ranking, and the 10th ranked team in terms of BPI. These numbers aren’t a great indicator for a title contender, but there are other things that set this team apart. There are 6 stats among the rest that indicate success in March, these stats are: Ken Pom offense, Ken Pom defense, effective field goal %, turnover % per offensive play, opponents two point %, and offensive rebounding %. Here are Duke’s rankings in the nation for these stats, respectively:

• Ken Pom Offense Rank: 10th

• Ken Pom Defense Rank: 19th

• Effective Field Goal %: 21st

• Turnover %: 17th

• Opponents Two Point %: 36th

• Offensive Rebounding %: 55th

Outside of offensive rebounding, Duke is in the top 40 for ALL of these stats.There are only TWO teams in the nation that rank in the top 50 for all these stats: Duke and Kentucky. Historically, these stats have indicated the most success in previous tournaments. Something to think about. Plus Duke has two lottery picks for the NBA, one of which will be in the top 3 picks, Paulo Banchero and AJ Griffin. They also have 2 other 1st round picks for the 2022 NBA draft in Wendell Moore and Trevor Keels. Good luck beating this team in March. Oh, not to mention that this is Coach K’s last year coaching Duke; the basketball gods may have something to say about this fairy tale.

Most Vulnerable Teams, Seeded 1-4

Wisconsin Badgers- Projected Seed: 3

What do we make of the Badgers this year? They have one of the best players in the nation in Johnny Davis, who will definitely be a top 10 pick in the NBA draft this summer. They also have a clutch performer in Brad Davison, who seems to come alive when the team needs him most. Wisconsin likes to keep games close and win close games. They have 13 games this season where they won by 6 or fewer points. While writing this post, Wisconsin beat #8 Purdue by 3 points to further this point. They are also on top of the Big Ten, which is historically one of the toughest conferences in the nation (They have the 10th toughest strength of schedule in the nation). The problem with the Badgers is not one thing, it is many things. They are the 24th ranked team in terms of BPI, as well as having the 38th ranked offense in the nation and the 36th ranked defense in the nation according to KenPom.com. To be considered a contender, you need to be in the top 25 for both offense and defense. They also don’t take smart shots and don’t grab offensive rebounds, ranked 247th in offensive efficiency and 240th in offensive rebounding in the nation. If shots aren’t falling and Davis has an off night, this team could be in trouble.

Providence Flyers- Projected Seed: 4

The big winners of the Big East this year, congrats to the Friars. The Big East is no joke. Providence is similar to Wisconsin in that they like to keep games close (who actually beat Wisconsin @ Wisconsin earlier this year). Providence has 11 games where they won by 5 or less points. They also only have 3 losses, and have beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Uconn, Xavier twice, and Marquette. Some problems with Providence? They are a projected 4 seed, but have the 35th ranked BPI in the nation. They overall don’t take smart shots either, ranking 137th in offensive efficiency in the nation. Typically high seeded teams like Providence who rank outside the top 50 in offensive efficiency tend to go home early.

First 1 Seed to Lose

Auburn Tigers- Projected Seed: 1

Jabari Smith, the Kevin Durant of college basketball. If you haven’t seen him play you need to. He will be a really good pro. Outside of Smith, Auburn has the 16th best offense and 8th best defense in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy. They also protect the paint really well, with the 7th best opponent two point percentage in the nation. The concern for Auburn, however, is their effective field goal percentage. They are currently 128th in the nation in effective field goal percentage, which means they have a tendency to take unnecessary and low percentage shots. Championship teams historically rank in the top 30 of this stat, Auburn is way off of that. As a 1 seed they also have the 13th best BPI rank, which is also strange. Auburn also does not shoot the three pointer well at all, ranking 275th in the nation. Taking smart shots and making three pointers could be the achilles heel of this team.

2022 Dark Horse Candidates, Seeds 5-9- Dark horse simply means teams that are off the radar as contenders, but who are destined to destroy brackets and make a deep run in the tournament despite having less than favorable seeds. Dark Horses are built like contenders, but are teams that will be overlooked due to a poor seed. The teams below have the best chance to be a dark horse in this year’s tournament:

Houston Cougars- Projected Seed: 5

A projected 5 seed? Are you kidding me? This is a 2 seed at worst. This is an example of a team outside of the Power 6 conferences (power 6 conferences include: Big Ten, Big Twelve, ACC, Big East, SEC and Pac 12) that is getting way overlooked. Houston isn’t even a mid major team. They play in the American Conference, which is NOT a mid major conference. Houston has the 13th best offense in the nation and the 17th best defense in the nation according to KenPom.com. If you read other Bracket Wizard posts, you will know that having a top 20 offense AND top 20 defense in the nation makes you a contender. Houston’s strength of schedule is actually stronger than Gonzaga’s. Houston does only have 1 win against a tournament team, when they absolutely demolished Oregon @ Oregon. They lost to Alabama by 1 point and Wisconsin by 2 points.Houston is long, plays tough defense, grabs all the rebounds and this team can score. Plus Calvin Sampson is their coach and has lots of experience in March.

Iowa Hawkeyes- Projected Seed: 6

Most metrics that the committee uses for seeding (such as the BPI and NET rank) have Iowa playing more like a 4 seed. Iowa has the 5th best offense in the nation according to KenPom.com, and they have the best turnover percentage in the nation. This means that Iowa does not turn the ball over on an offensive possession. Iowa also has Keegan Murray, who is averaging over 23 points per game. He has “lottery pick” in the 2022 NBA draft written all over him. Iowa has wins over Virginia, Indiana, @ Ohio State by 13, and Michigan State by 26. The only question mark for Iowa is their defense, where they rank 81st in the nation. Iowa also doesn’t protect the paint too well and haven’t fared well against big teams. They rank 182nd in the nation in opponent two point percentage.

Saint Marys Gaels- Projected Seed: 8

If Saint Marys gets the 8 seed and goes on to win their opening round game against a 9 seed, they will play a 1 seed. Saint Marys just beat the best 1 seed in the nation in Gonzaga by 10 points. The Bracket Wizard sees the Gaels as more deserving of a 6 seed instead of an 8 seed. In most metrics used for seeding, Saint Marys is in the low 20s in rank in the nation, which would see them more as a low end 6 seed. Saint Marys has the 19th highest rank in NET in the nation, and also boasts the 15th best defense in the nation per KenPom.com. Saint Marys’ two biggest issues are their offensive rebounding percentage, where they rank 195th in that nation, and their 92nd rank in strength of schedule. Saint Marys has wins against @ Notre Dame, Oregon, San Francisco twice, BYU and Gonzaga. Beware of the Gael force winds.

Murray State Racers- Projected Seed: 9

This is a classic case of a mid-major team getting overlooked and given a classic mid-major seed. Make no mistake, Murray State is no joke. In most metrics used for seeding, Murray state ranks in the mid 20s in the nation. This would be equivalent to a 5 or 6 seed, not a 9 seed. Also, despite recent history with Murray State (shout out to Ja Morant), this team should not be viewed as a cinderella. This team is built like a contender, with cinderella tendencies. Despite having the 263rd lowest strength of schedule in the nation, this team finds itself with the 25th best BPI and 24th best NET rank in the nation. Murray State also has the 35th best offense in the nation, and excels at offensive rebounding and offensive efficiency (13th in the nation and 18th in the nation respectively).

2022 Cinderellas, Seeds 10-14- A cinderella is a team seeded 10 or lower (between 10-16) who wins multiple games in the NCAA tournament. If you have not read the section of the Bracket Wizard blog regarding cinderellas, you need to read that before reading this section. In that section, the Bracket Wizard breaks down the stats and historical data that correlate to teams having success as cinderellas. A quick summary, having a great offense, taking smart shots, making a large percentage of three point shots and having an efficient offense make for successful cinderellas. Taking smart shots is identified by effective field goal percentage, and an efficient offense is identified by points per possession.

North Carolina Tar Heels- Projected Seed: 11

North Carolina possesses the 34th best BPI rank in the nation, which when looking at this and other seeding metrics, make North Carolina more like an 8 seed. If you have read the Bracket Wizard’s section on the blog about seeding and how far teams go based on seed, you will actually find 11 seeds have an easier route into the later rounds than 8 seeds. Outside of this, North Carolina is actually built like a cinderella. This may be one of the first times the Bracket Wizard has written that sentence. North Carolina possesses two key stats for cinderellas: high three point shooting percentage and a highly efficient offense. North Carolina is ranked 33rd in the nation in three point shooting percentage and 38th in the nation in offensive efficiency. It is an unusual seed for North Carolina, as the team historically is near the top for seeding. This year, however, North Carolina is built for a cinderella run. North Carolina has also won 10 of its last 12 games.

Loyola Chicago Ramblers- Projected Seed: 11

In order to understand the passion that the Bracket Wizard has for the NCAA Tournament, you need to review the 2018 NCAA Tournament when Loyola Chicago made the Final Four as an 11 seed. This was a magical journey of many highs in the realms of bracket prediction. While the Bracket Wizard tends to talk a big game without results backing up that game, this was the year the Bracket Wizard picked the right Cinderella to reach the Final Four. Good ol’ Sister Jean! This year, Loyola Chicago is ALSO projected to be an 11 seed. This is the first time since 2018 that they have this seed. This year's team has a lot of similarities to that 2018 team. Loyola Chicago boasts the 32nd best BPI in the nation this year. In 2018? 40th going into the tournament. This year's team also possesses the 28th best offense in the nation according to KenPom and the 4th best offensive effective field goal percentage in the nation (taking smart shots). In 2018? Loyola Chicago had the 7th highest effective field goal percentage in the nation. Loyola Chicago also has the 7th highest three point percentage in the nation. In 2018? Loyola Chicago had the 17th best three point percentage in the nation. In other words, this team is built just like 2018, except they are BETTER this year.

Davidson Wildcats- Projected Seed: 11

Davidson is a little behind the other Cinderella candidates in this section in terms of seeding metrics. Davidson ranks 54th in BPI and 45th in NET ranking.What Davidson does possess, however, is a way of playing basketball that is a model for building a Cinderella team for March. Davidson has the 13th best offense in the nation according to KenPom.com. Davidson has the 31st best effective field goal shooting percentage in the nation, as well as the 9th best three point shooting percentage in the nation. The last category, as mentioned in the introduction to this section, is offensive efficiency. Davidson ranks 9th in the nation in that category. There is no other team in the nation more built to be a Cinderella than Davidson, and they happen to have a projected 11 seed. Review the Seed Analysis by Round section of the Bracket Wizard blog to find out why having an 11 or 12 seed is the best seed to make a cinderella run.

Michigan Wolverines- Projected Seed: 10

This was a tough decision between Michigan and Memphis. Michigan got the nod here because they are built more like a cinderella. Michigan has the 31st best BPI in the nation, which is right along the lines for a cinderella team (Loyola Chicago is 32 and North Carolina is 33). Michigan also has some impressive wins including wins against Indiana, Purdue by 24 points, @ Iowa, Rutgers and Michigan State. They also have the 6th toughest strength of schedule in the nation, so they won’t back down from anybody. The coach situation is a little concerning with Howard, but Michigan plays like a Cinderella in many areas. Michigan has the 24th best offense in the nation according to KenPom.com as well as the 49th most efficient offense in the nation. What they don’t do well is shoot the three however, ranking 191th in the nation in three point percentage. Michigan also has a 15-12 overall record, which presents a little too many loses to feel very comfortable. Michigan is mentioned last here because there are some inconsistencies between previous Cinderellas and this year's Michigan team, but the Bracket Wizard would not be surprised to see Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen with the right matchups.

Stats courtesy of:

1. Effective field goal percentage, three point percentage, offensive rebounding percentage, offensive efficiency, turnover percentage found on www.teamrankings.com

2. BPI found on https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/season/2022/view/overview/sort/bpirank/dir/asc

3. NET Rankings found on https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

4. Offensive rank, defensive rank found on www.kenpom.com

5. Lunardi’s projected bracket found here https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-projecting-2022-march-madness-men-field