The Bracket Wizard
Choosing your Cinderella
Is there anything more satisfying in the world of brackets then correctly picking a double digit seed to win multiple games? The Bracket Wizard is here with advice on selecting the right cinderella. Advice is based on the traits of previous cinderella teams.
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The Bracket Wizard defines a cinderella as any double digit seed (seeds 10-16) to advance to at least the Sweet Sixteen. This means that a double digit seed will win at least TWO games.
Before we get into the traits of cinderella teams, here is a brief history lesson on recent cinderella teams:
Over the last 10 tournaments, there have been 23 teams seeded 10 or higher that have reached Sweet Sixteen. There have been a total of 160 teams to reach Sweet Sixteen in these tournaments. This is a ratio of 23 to 160 or 14.375%
Over the last 10 tournaments, there have been 6 teams seeded 10 or higher that have reached Elite Eight. This is a ratio of 6 to 160 or 3.75%
Over the last 10 tournaments, there have been 3 teams seeded 10 or higher that have reached Final Four. 3 to 160 or 1.85%
11 seeds have had the highest success rate to reach Sweet Sixteen, with 11 of the 23 teams being 11 seeds
Only 11 seeds have reached Elite Eight or Final Four, with the exception being 2016 Syracuse as a 10 seed that reached Elite Eight
No seeded team of 10 or higher has reached the title game or won the title in the last 10 tournaments
If you have been paying attention, the safest bet for your cinderella is to pick them NO further than the Sweet Sixteen. IF you are going to have your cinderella advance past the Sweet Sixteen, make sure you select an 11 seed. You're welcome in advance.
Recent history suggests the following traits are great indicators for teams that could become potential cinderellas:
**One note on cinderella teams and teams in general. Teams that are underseeded (teams that got a bad seed) are dangerous teams and work well as cinderellas. The Weekly Expert Rankings section will start highlighting projected seed versus seed based on expert ranks soon.
Top 50 in Offensive Efficiency on https://kenpom.com/ - Of the 23 double digit seeds from the last 10 tournaments to reach the Sweet Sixteen, 14 of the teams were in the top 50 for offensive efficiency.
Top 75 in Three Point %, or over 36.5% - https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/three-point-pct- Of the 23 teams, 10 of the teams shot over 36.5% from three pointers.
Top 50 in Points per Possession, or over 1.04- https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-efficiency - Of the 23 teams, 15 of them had over 1.04 points per possession.
Top 75 in Offensive Rebounding %, or over 30.5%- https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-rebounding-pct - Of the 23 teams, 13 of them had an offensive rebound percentage over 30.5.
Top 60 in Least Personal Fouls Committed Per Game, or under 16.5 per game- https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/personal-fouls-per-game?date=2018-04-03 - Of the 23 teams, 11 of them committed less than 16.5 fouls per game.
Top 50 SOR in the Nation- https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/season/2020/view/overview/sort/sorrank/dir/asc - Of the 23 teams, 18 of them were in the Top 50 SOR in the nation.