The Bracket Wizard
Seed Analysis by Round: First Round
Curious how each seed as done historically by round? Look no further than The Bracket Wizard's analysis of seeds by round!
The NCAA College Basketball Tournament is made up of 64 teams, with an additional 4 teams chosen by play-in winners. These teams are broken into seeds, 1-16. Each team's seed is selected by a committee that reviews each teams performance over the year. 1 is the best seed a team can have, and a 16 seed is the worst seed a team can get.
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Now that we have that out of the way, let's get into the meat and bones of the seed analysis. Our seed analysis will go all the way back to 1985, and go through all the years up until last year's NCAA tournament, 2021.
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First Round
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There have been a total of 140 teams for each seed since 1985. Here is the performance by seed for the first round:
1 Seeds- Since 1985, 139 of the 1 seeds have one their first round game. Remember Virginia losing to UMBC by 20 points in 2018? Yeah, that should never happen. 1 seeds win their first round game 99% of the time.
2 Seeds- 132 of the 140 2 seeds won their first round game, or 94%
3 Seeds- 119 of the 140 3 seeds won their first round game, or 85%
4 Seeds- 111 of the 140 4 seeds won their first round game, or 79%
5 Seeds- 90 of the 140 5 seeds won their first round game, or 64%
6 Seeds- 88 of the 140 6 seeds won their first round game, or 63%
7 Seeds- 85 of the 140 7 seeds won their first round game, or 61%
8 Seeds- 68 of the 140 8 seeds won their first round game, or 49%
9 Seeds- 72 of the 140 9 seeds won their first round game, or 51%
10 Seeds- 55 of the 140 10 seeds won their first round game, or 39%
11 Seeds- 52 of the 140 11 seeds won their first round game, or 37%
12 Seeds- 50 of the 140 12 seeds won their first round game, or 36%
13 Seeds- 29 of the 140 13 seeds won their first round game, or 21%
14 Seeds- 21 of the 140 14 seeds won their first round game, or 15%
15 Seeds- 8 of the 140 15 seeds won their first round game, or 6%
16 Seeds- 1 of the 140 16 seeds won their first round game, or 1%
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Filling out your Bracket by the Numbers:
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Let's do some quick math: Each year, there are 4 teams for each seed. If we look at the winning percentages by seed for the first round, we can ascertain how many teams we should pick to win the first round by seed. For example, 1 seeds win their first round game 99% of the time, so by the numbers we should pick all four 1 seeds to win their first game. Right?? The Bracket Wizard is here to help you understand.
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For reference, here are the first round matchups by seed:
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1v16
2v15
3v14
4v13
5v12
6v11
7v10
8v9
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2 Seeds- Win 94% of their first round games, so pick all 4 to win
3 Seeds- Win 85% of their first round games, so unless you are feeling risky and dangerous, pick all four 3 seeds to win their first round game
4 Seeds- Win 79% of their first round games. This would be an okay time to start looking at upsets and perhaps picking one to lose their first round game. Make sure to look at the match up before you decide to pull the trigger!
5 Seeds- Win 64% of their first round game. The Bracket Wizard really sees the 5 versus 12 games as a toss up historically. Pick up to two 12 over 5 upsets
6 Seeds- Win 63% of their first round games. See everything mentioned under 5 seeds, it is exactly the same. The only difference is that you should pick at least two 11 seeds to beat 6 seeds
7 Seeds- Win 61% of their first round games. You should pick at least two 7 seeds to lose their first round game to solid 10 seeds (who are often underseeded by the way)
8 Seeds and 9 Seeds- This is a toss up, literal 50/50 split. Do what you want here
10 Seeds- As mentioned with 7 seeds, pick two 10 seeds to win their first round game. 1 is the safe bet however
11 Seeds- Win 37% of their first round games. Although it is safe to just pick one 11 seed to win, The Bracket Wizard believes it is more even in recent history. Bracket Wizard recommendation: pick 2!
12 Seeds- Same as 11 seeds, only 12 seeds play 5 seeds. Pick two 12 seeds to upset two 5 seeds
13 Seeds- Win 21% of their first round games. With a good matchup, you can pick one 13 seeds to upset a 4 seed
14 Seeds- Win 14% of their first round games. Pick an upset at your own risk, but cautious is best here
15 Seeds- Just don't pick a 15 seed to win a first round game okay?
16 Seeds- There is only one UMBC team, and the likelihood it happens again is around 1%. Don't do it
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To look at the table of data courtesy of BetFirm.com, click on the button below
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Second Round
Let's look at the historical data for how seeds have done in the Second Round. To understand how this data reads, here is an example. There have been 132 2 seeds to advance to the Second Round since 1985. Of the 132 teams, 89 of them have won their Second Round game. This is 67%. In other words, a 2 seeded team that wins their first round game has a 67% chance of winning their Second Round game. I hope that helps, it can get a little confusing once we get deeper into the tournament. As always, the Bracket Wizard is here to help you understand. Let's look at the data. Remember each seed has had 140 teams enter the tournament since 1985:
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1 Seeds- Of the 139 teams to win their first round game, 120 of them have won their second round game. This is 86%
2 Seeds- 132 teams won their first round game, 89 of these teams won their second round game. This is 67%.
3 Seeds- 119 teams won their first round game, 74 of these teams won their second round game. This is 62%
4 Seeds- 111 teams won their first round game, 66 of these teams won their second round game. This is 59%
5 Seeds- 90 teams won their first round game, 47 of these teams won their second round game. This is 52%
6 Seeds- 88 teams won their first round game, 42 of these teams won their second round game. This is 48%
7 Seeds- 85 teams won their first round game, 27 of these teams won their second round game. This is 32%
8 Seeds- 68 teams won their first round game, 13 of these teams won their second round game. This is 19%
9 Seeds- 72 teams won their first round game, 7 of these teams won their second round game. This is 10%
10 Seeds- 55 teams won their first round game, 23 of these teams won their second round game. This is 42%
11 Seeds- 52 teams won their first round game, 22 of these teams won their second round game. This is 42%
12 Seeds- 50 teams won their first round game, 21 of these teams won their second round game. This is 42%
13 Seeds- 29 teams won their first round game, 6 of these teams won their second round game. This is 21%
14-16 Seeds- Don't pick these seeds to win their second round game. It doesn't happen.
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Filling out your bracket by the numbers:
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Here is a description of the numbers by the use of an example again. If a 1 seed wins their first round game, they have a 86% chance of winning their second round game. By contrast, if a 9 seed wins their first round game, they have a 10% chance of winning their second game.
The Bracket Wizard sees the percentages as a way of looking at how many teams can win their second round game by seed. If all 4 seeds are hypothetically still around in the second round, only around a percentage of 100% would make me confident that all 4 of those seeds would win their second round games. Around 75% would be 3 of the 4 teams in that seed winning, 50% for 2 of the 4 teams in that seed winning, 25% for 1 of the 4 teams in that seed to win. I hope that helps a little bit. Let's break down the second round by seed:
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1 seeds- 86% chance of winning their second round game. By taking the logic from above, the Bracket Wizard believes it is the safest bet to pick all 4 of your 1 seeds to win their second round game.
2 Seeds- 67% chance of winning their second round game. This is a little bit less than 3 of the 2 seeds winning their second round game. Based on the success of 10 seeds, which we will get to later, the Bracket Wizard believes picking 2 of your 2 seeds to win their second round game matches the data the best.
3 Seeds- 62% chance of winning their second round game. Getting closer to 50% then 75%, so the Bracket Wizard recommends picking 2 of your 3 seeds to win their second round game.
4 Seeds- 59% chance of winning. Same as 3 seeds. Pick 2 of your 4 seeds to win, and 2 of your 4 seeds to lose their second round game
5 Seeds- 52% chance of winning. Based on the success of 11 and 12 seeds in the second round, which we will get to later, the Bracket Wizard sees 5 seeds as having a tough go in the second round. Even though the data suggests 52% chance of winning, picking only 1 of your 5 seeds to win their second round game is the most logical.
6 Seeds- 48%. Same as 5 seeds
7 Seeds- 32% chance of winning second round game. For some odd reason, 10 seeds have a higher chance of winning their second round game than 7 seeds. The Bracket Wizard does not like the odds of anything below 40%, so only pick 1 of your 7 seeds to win their second round game if you are feeling over confident.
8 Seeds- 19% chance of winning. The odds aren't great, so don't pick an 8 seed unless the match-up is perfect.
9 Seeds- 10%. The Bracket Wizard doesn't recommend picking any 9 seeds to win their second round game
10 Seeds- 42% chance of winning second round. This is a crazy data point, as are the 11 and 12 seeds. The Bracket Wizard sees this percentage and thinks that you should pick at least one 10 seed to win their second round game.
11 Seeds- 42%. Same as 10 and 12 seeds. Pick at least one of your 11 seeds to win their second round game.
12 Seeds- 42%. Same as 10 and 11 seeds. Pick 1 of your 12 seeds to win their second round game.
13 Seeds- 21%. Avoid picking a 13 seed to win their second round game, unless it is a favorable match up against another high seed like a 12 seed.
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Sweet Sixteen
The Sweet 16 is where the better ranked teams really start to settle in.  If you are a 1-3 seed that has made it this far, chances are you are going to advance. One interesting note here is that 8 seeds that have made it this far are more likely to advance than 3-7 seed. The trick, of course, is picking which 8 seed is going to advance. A #8 has been in this situation in just 37% of the brackets in the last 35 years.
Lets look at how each seed has fared in the Sweet Sixteen since 1985:
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1 Seeds- 120 one seeds have advanced to Sweet Sixteen. Of these teams, 97 of them have won there match up in the Sweet Sixteen to advance to next round. This is 81% of the teams. This means 81% of the 1 seeds who have made it to the Sweet Sixteen have advanced to the next round.
2 Seeds- 89 teams. 64 wins. 72% of 2 seeds have advanced to next round.
3 Seeds- 74 teams. 36 wins. 49% of 3 seeds have advanced to next round.
4 Seeds- 66 teams. 21 wins. 32% of 4 seeds have advanced to next round.
5 Seeds- 47 teams. 9 wins. 19% of 5 seeds have advanced to next round.
6 Seeds- 42 teams. 14 wins. 33% of 6 seeds have advanced to next round.
7 Seeds- 27 teams. 10 wins. 37% of 7 seeds have advanced to next round.
8 Seeds- 13 teams. 8 wins. 62% of 8 seeds have advanced to next round
9 Seeds- 7 teams. 4 wins. 57% of 9 seeds have advanced to next round.
10 Seeds- 23 teams. 8 wins. 35% of 10 seeds have advanced to next round
11 Seeds- 22 teams. 8 wins. 36% of 11 seeds have advanced to next round.
12 Seeds- 21 teams. 1 win. 5% of 12 seeds have advanced to next round.
13-16 Seeds- No 13-16 seeded team has advanced past the Sweet Sixteen since 1985.
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The Bracket Wizard's analysis of the Sweet Sixteen by seed:
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1 Seeds- If a 1 seed makes it to the Sweet Sixteen, they have an 81% chance of advancing to the next round. You should pick three one seeds to advance to the next round.
2 Seeds- 2 seeds have a 72% chance of advancing to the next round if they make it to the Sweet Sixteen. If you have picked all your 2 seeds to make it this far, you need to pick one of them to lose in the Sweet Sixteen.
3 Seeds- 3 seeds have a 49% of advancing to the next round. You should not have more than two 3 seeds advance to the next round from the Sweet Sixteen
4 Seeds- 4 seeds have a 32% chance of advancing to the next round. Of the 4 seeds you have left, you should only pick one to make it to the next round
5 Seeds- 5 seeds have a 19% chance of advancing to the next round. The Bracket Wizard recommends that you don't pick any 5 seeds to win their Sweet Sixteen match up to advance.
6 Seeds- 6 seeds have a 33% chance of advancing to next round. Only pick a 6 seed to advance if you are confident in match ups, as 6 seeds have a tough road to make Sweet Sixteen.
7 Seeds- 7 seeds have a 37% chance of advancing to next round. Same analysis as 6 seeds.
8 Seeds- 62% of 8 seeds have advanced to next round. This is a very interesting stat. If the 8 seed makes it to the Sweet Sixteen, they actually have a decent shot at making the next round. Find your 8 seed that you are confident in, and pick them to win their Sweet Sixteen game!
9 Seeds- 57% of 9 seeds have advanced to next round. Same analysis as 8 seeds. The only stipulation here is that you should only pick either an 8 seed or a 9 seed to advance. You should not pick an 8 seed AND a 9 seed to advance.
10 and 11 seeds- 35% of 10 seeds and 36% of 11 seeds have advanced to the next round. The same analysis applies here as does the 6 and 7 seeds. It seems that whoever wins the match up between the 6v11 match up or 7v10 matchup have a small chance of advancing to the next round. Be cautious with picking a 6, 7, 10, or 11 seed to advance past the Sweet Sixteen. In fact, only pick ONE team that has these seeds to advance past Sweet Sixteen.
13-16 seeds- Don't pick them to advance past Sweet Sixteen. Just don't do it.
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Click the button below for the Bet Firm Data Table by Round:
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Elite Eight
This round appears to be the biggest equalizer. Â Teams who reach this point in the tournament are obviously talented and have either had an easy bracket thus far or have overcome some obstacles. Â This makes the Elite 8 ripe for upsets.
Let's look at how each seed has fared in the Elite Eight since 1985:
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1 Seeds- Of the 97 one seeds to advance to the Elite Eight, 57 of them have won their Elite Eight match up. This is 59%. So of the 1 seeds to advance to the Elite Eight, 59% of them have advanced to the Final Four.
2 Seeds- 64 teams have advanced to Elite Eight as 2 seeds. 29 of the 2 seeds have advanced Final Four. This is 45% of 2 seeds that have advanced from Elite Eight to Final Four.
3 Seeds- 36 teams. 17 wins. 47% of 3 seeds have advanced from Elite Eight to Final Four.
4 Seeds- 21 teams. 13 wins. 62% of 4 seeds have advanced from Elite Eight to Final Four.
5 Seeds- 9 teams. 7 wins. 78% of 5 seeds have advanced from Elite Eight to Final Four.
6 Seeds- 14 teams. 3 wins. 21% of 6 seeds have advanced from Elite Eight to Final Four.
7 Seeds- 10 teams. 3 wins. 30% of 7 seeds have advanced from Elite Eight to Final Four.
8 Seeds- 8 teams. 5 wins. 63% of 8 seeds have advanced from Elite Eight to Final Four.
9 Seeds- 4 teams. 1 win. 25% of 9 seeds have advanced from Elite Eight to Final Four.
10 Seeds- 8 teams. 1 win. 13% of 10 seeds have advanced from Elite Eight to Final Four.
11 Seeds- 8 teams. 4 wins. 50% of 11 seeds have advanced from Elite Eight to Final Four.
12-16 Seeds- None have advanced to Final Four.
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The Bracket Wizard's analysis of the Elite Eight by seed:
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1 Seeds- 59% of 1 seeds that have made the Elite Eight have advanced to the Final Four. The Bracket Wizard recommends that two 1 Seeds should make your Final Four. Pick the two best teams with the easiest road and write it in pen and don't overthink it. The best teams usually find a way to advance, especially if they have favorable match-ups.
2 Seeds- 45% of 2 seeds that make Elite Eight advance to Final Four. Pick either a 2 seed or a 3 seed to advance to Final Four, not both!
3 Seeds- 47% of 3 seeds that make the Elite Eight advance to Final Four. See 2 seed analysis.
4 Seeds- 62% of 4 seeds that make Elite Eight make Final Four. Your final team that makes the Final Four should be between a 4 and 11 seed. More information on this to follow. A 4 seed makes for a great dark horse pick to round out your Final Four.
5 Seeds- 78% of 5 seeds make the Final Four from the Elite Eight. If you have been paying attention by round, you should NOT have picked a 5 seed to advance to the Elite Eight. Only 9 teams that have had a 5 seed out of the possible 140 total 5 seeds since 1985 have advanced to the Elite Eight. For some odd reason, 5 seeds do seem to do well when they make the Elite Eight!
6 Seeds- 21% of 6 seeds that have made the Elite Eight have advanced to the Final Four. Only three 6 seeds have EVER made the Final Four out of a possible 140 teams with a 6 seed. Don't pick a 6 seed to advance to Final Four if you want to be considered sensible.
7 Seeds- 30% of 7 seeds have made the Final Four from the Elite Eight. Only three 7 seeds have EVER made the Final Four out of a possible 140 teams that have been a 7 seed. Don't pick a 7 seed in the final four.
8 Seeds- 63% of the 8 seeds that have made Elite Eight have made the Final Four. See analysis explained in the 11 seed line for more info on the 4, 8 and 11 seed in the Final Four.
9 Seeds- Don't pick a 9 seed in the Final Four
10 Seeds- Don't pick a 10 seed in the Final Four
11 Seeds- Remember how the Bracket Wizard was going to explain the 4, 8 and 11 seeds advancing to Final Four? Well, here it is: Pick either a 4 seed, an 8 seed or an 11 seed to advance to your Final Four. Wait what?! Yes, your fourth Final Four team should be one of those seeds. If any one of these seeds advance to Elite Eight, historically, they do really well in Elite Eight games. There have been 22 teams seeded either a 4, 8 or 11 that have advanced to Final Four. Pick it. If it comes off, you will look like a genius. Thank The Bracket Wizard later. If it doesn't come off, remember you picked it in your bracket.
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For the Bet Firm Data Table by Round, click the button below:
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Final Four
Similar to the Elite 8, teams who make it this far, regardless of seed, are going to be a tough out.  All this means is that if you select a non-number-one to make the Final Four, you shouldn’t feel obligated to pick them to lose at this point.
Let's take a look at how seeds have fared in the Final Four:
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1 Seeds- 57 of teams that had a 1 seed have advanced to Final Four. 34 of these teams won their match up in the Final Four to advance to the Championship game. This is 60% of 1 seeds that made the Final Four advanced to the Championship game.
2 Seeds- 29 teams advanced to Final Four. 13 of the 29 teams that were a 2 seed advanced to Championship game. This is 45% of 2 seeds who made the Final Four advanced to the Championship game.
3 Seeds- 17 teams. 11 wins. 65% of 3 seeds who made the Final Four won their match up and advanced to the Championship game.
4 Seeds- 13 teams. 3 wins. 23%.
5 Seeds- 7 teams. 3 wins. 43%
6 Seeds- 3 teams. 2 wins. 67%
7 Seeds- 3 teams. 1 win. 33%
8 Seeds- 5 teams, 3 wins. 60%
9-16 seeds- Have never won a Final Four game.
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The Bracket Wizard's analysis of the Final Four by seed:
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There have been a total of 140 teams to make the Final Four since 1985. 1 Seeds have provided 57 of the teams, which is 41% of the total teams. If you didn't understand why 1 seeds should be picked to the Final Four, understand this: 1 seeded teams have supplied more teams to the Final Four then 3-16 seeds combined!
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When picking your teams to advance to the Championship game, the higher the seed, the more likely they will advance. Of the 70 teams to advance to the Championship game, 34 of them have been 1 seeds. You should make sure to have at least one 1 seed to advance to Championship game. Outside of 1 seeds, 2-4 seeds have combined for 27 of the 70 teams (4 seeds have only had 3 teams advance to Championship game since 1985). If you aren't going to pick two 1 seeds to advance to the Championship game, you should pick either a 2 seed or a 3 seed. 4-16 seeds have only provided 12 out of the 70 teams to make the Championship game since 1985. This is only 17%. 1-3 seeds, on the other hand, have supplied 58 of the 70 teams. This is 83% of teams. The Bracket Wizard recommends picking only 1-3 seeds to advance to the Championship game, with at least one of them being a 1 seed.
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To view the data table by round courtesy of Bet Firm, click the button below:
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Championship Game
1 Seeded teams, as we will find out, fare the best in the Championship game. No team seed 8 or higher (9-16 seeds) have won the Championship.
There have been 35 NCAA College Basketball Tournament champions since 1985. 1 seeds have provided 22 of the winning teams, which is 63%. 5 teams with a 2 seed have won, 4 teams with a 3 seed won, and teams with a 4-8 seed have 4 wins combined. When it comes to picking your champion, it is best to stick with a 1 seed.
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Click the button below for the Bet Firm Data Table by Round:
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