Team Tiers

Seeds 1-9:

 

Favorites- These teams are the best of the best, and are the favorites to cut down the nets. With very little weaknesses, these teams have the best chance of winning:

Teams: Auburn Tigers, Duke Blue Devils

​

Contenders- These teams are the next tier down from favorites. These teams may be just short of favorite, or have one minor flaw that could be shown against the wrong team. Consider these teams when selecting your team to win it all, they could easily do it. Also strong final four favorites.

Teams: Houston Cougars, Florida Gators, Tennessee Volunteers, Arizona Cardinals

 

Beta Contenders- Don’t rule out any of the teams in this tier. With the right draw and a little bit of luck, these teams have what it takes to cut down the nets as well. These teams will likely have one small flaw that will likely hold them back from winning it all, but do most things extremely well. 

Teams: Alabama Crimson Tide, Iowa State Cyclones, Texas Tech Red Raiders, Wisconsin Badgers

 

Contenders with a red flag- With the right draw, these teams have Final Four DNA. Each of these teams have dreams and a real shot of making it the final four. But anything after that would be an utter surprise. These teams are really good, but may lack a key piece of the puzzle to make their final four dreams reality. These teams have Elite Eight written all over them and not surprising to see them get there. The Dark Horses will be good against them, but Cinderellas will come up short.

Teams: Purdue Boilermakers, Kentucky Wildcats, Michigan State Spartans

 

Dark Horses (seeds 4-9)- The classic category. If any of these teams decide to get rolling, they will be a really tough out. Think big conference teams that can play really good basketball with the right push. The key with this category is that not a lot of casual fans will know about these teams, and won’t be expecting them to make a lot of noise past the early rounds.

Teams: Maryland Terrapins, Kansas Jayhawks, UCLA Bruins, Gonzaga Bulldogs, Uconn Huskies

 

The Average Best- These teams fall typically on the 3-6 seed line, but shouldn’t be considered dark horses. They aren’t quite contenders, as they don’t have the stats that the contenders have. They may have too many “average” stats to be considered contenders, but they also don’t have any major problem areas or many x factors to make them dark horses.

Teams: Michigan Wolverines, Illinois Fighting Illini, Missouri Tigers, Clemson Tigers, Saint Mary's Gaels

​
 

Vulnerable Giants- These major program, major conference teams look good on paper or are seeded too highly. These teams, however, have several issues. Maybe they have multiple red flags, maybe they have a bad seed or match up. Maybe they have been playing poorly down the stretch. These teams have the historical pedigree, but don’t have the skills/results to match the pedigree this season. Beware of picking these teams. Think the opposite of Dark Horses.

Teams: Texas A and M Aggies, St. John’s Red Storm, Marquette Golden Eagles, Ole Miss Rebels

 

Good not Great- These teams don’t have any major flaws, but a lot of their metrics or wins are average or slightly above average. They are very deserving teams for the field, but are in between good and average

Teams:  BYU Cougars, Creighton Blue Jays, Baylor Bears, Utah State Aggies

 

Coin Flippers- It’s in the name. These teams will be involved in one game, and have a fifty fifty chance of winning the game. Think 7 through 9 seeds.

Teams: Louisville Cardinals, Oregon Ducks, Miss State Bulldogs, New Mexico Lobos, Memphis Tigers

 

Seeds 10-15

 

Cinderella Candidates (Seeds 10-15)- These teams have the potential to be the darlings of the tournament. With a lot to like about each team, these teams have the tools to make a run in the tournament. It would not suprise me to see a team from this category make it to the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight. The have that special something that makes fans like them and latch on to them in the most bandwagon of a sense. Luck will likely meet up with them along the ride as well.

Teams: UC San Diego Tritons, VCU Rams, Arkansas Razorbacks, Ohio State Buckeyes

 

Beta Cinderella Candidates: Given the right match up, these teams are next in line to win a first round match up. They likely will be outmatched by bigger and deeper schools. If teams look past these teams, it may make for an interesting game. The slipper doesn’t fit as nicely as the Cinderella candidates, and the slipper is likely just one size too small.

Teams: San Diego State Aztecs, Drake Bulldogs, West Virginia Mountaineers, UC Irvine Anteaters, North Carolina Tar Heels, Georgia Bulldogs

 

Bracket Busters- These major conference teams who managed to find a way into the tournament will not have high expectations. This makes these teams dangerous. Most of these teams will be battle tested and have nothing to lose. The metrics will likely favor these teams, and they will likely be underseeded teams. Don’t be surprised to see these teams do something completely unexpected and beat teams they aren’t supposed to beat and make a couple game run in the tournament. 

Teams: SMU Mustangs, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Cincinnati Bearcats, Oklahoma Sooners, Villanova Wildcats

 

In and Out: These teams are extremely happy to hear their name called on selection day. They will likely be auto bids or teams that were sitting on the bubble. The only difference between this category and the bracket busters is that these teams just don’t have enough to win a game in the tournament. Given the right match up they might make a first round game close, but that will be as close as they come to winning. 

Teams: Boise State Broncos, Vanderbilt Commodores, High Point Panthers, George Mason Patriots, McNeese Cowboys, Yale Bulldogs, Akron Zips

 

Just Happy to Be Here- We are so enthusiastic that we are getting our 15 minutes of fame. Through grit and grind and hard work, these teams have earned a bid and could not be more excited. Their thrill ends with their name being called on Selection Sunday however. 

Teams: All 16 Seeds, All 15 Seeds, All 14 Seeds

 

Don’t Deserve a Bid: If these teams names get called on selection sunday it is a mistake. These teams haven’t done enough throughout the year to deserve a place in the field. Whether they have weak metrics, are struggling in their conference or don’t have enough quality wins, it would be a shock to see them make the field

Teams: Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Xavier Musketeers, North Texas, Indiana Hoosiers