Team Profiles and Team Projections for Men’s 2022 NCAA Tournament, as of 3/6/2022
- Jake Archbold
- Mar 11, 2022
- 27 min read
In order to match the madness that is March in college basketball, the Bracket Wizard has decided to take on the insane task of highlighting EACH projected team in the tournament seeded 1-14. The Bracket Wizard will use Joe Lunardi’s current projected bracket, using the seeds for each team as highlighted in the bracket. In this post, the Bracket Wizard will provide a team profile, strengths and weaknesses, as well as how far the Bracket Wizard is projecting that team to go in the tournament. One stipulation to this: if the Bracket Wizard doesn’t project a team to win a game in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, they will not be highlighted in depth as those teams projected to win. Instead, the Bracket Wizard will provide a section titled “These teams will not win a game in the 2022 NCAA Tournament” to make sure every team gets a mention.
The following metrics and stats will be used in this post. The metrics used are used by the committee for seeding, as well as for highlighting how good a team did throughout the year. The stats highlighted are based on historical trends of teams who have done well in the tournament and stats that these teams possessed.
Tournament Resume Metrics:
BPI Rank in the nation- https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/
NET Rank in the nation- The NET Rank is based on number of quad 1 wins, which normally means when a team beats a top 40 BPI ranked team in the nation. More emphasis is put on away wins.
Strength of Schedule Rank (SOS): https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/
Record in the last 10 games: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/
Stats:
Ken Pomeroy’s Offensive Rank in the nation- https://kenpom.com/index
Ken Pomeroy’s Defensive Rank in the nation- https://kenpom.com/index
Effective Field Goal Percentage- When a team takes a shot, how often that shot goes in
Turnover Percentage- When a team has possession, the percentage the team turns the ball over
Opponents Two Pointer Percentage- How well a team defends the paint
Offensive Rebounding Percentage- When a team misses a shot, the percentage of times a team gets an offensive rebound versus their opponent getting a defensive rebound
Three Point Percentage
Points Per Possession- Offensive Efficiency, the number of points a team scorers per possession
(These stats are all found on https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/)
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Record: 24-3
Projected Seed: 1
Record over the last 10 games: 9-1
BPI Rank: 1st
SOS Rank: 87th
NET Rank: 1st
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 2nd
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 6th
Strengths: Gonzaga has some of the most impressive stats in the nation, and in key areas that previous champions have possessed. Gonzaga has the best effective field goal percentage (EFG%) in the nation, they have the 3rd best opponents two point percentage (O2P%) in the nation. They also have the 2nd best offensive efficiency in the nation (PPP).
Weaknesses: Gonzaga does have many weaknesses. Since Gonzaga takes such smart shots and has a high offensive efficiency, they don’t often need to rebound the basketball. They have the 96th best offensive rebounding percentage in the nation. They also possess the 87th hardest strength of schedule in the nation.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the National Championship Game
Arizona Wildcats
Record: 26-3
Projected Seed: 1
Record over the last 10 games: 9-1
BPI Rank: 4
NET Rank: 2
SOS Rank: 68
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 7
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 7
Strengths: Arizona ranks extremely high in all of the metrics used for seeding, such as the BPI and NET ranking. Arizona also has a great offense AND defense, ranking in the top 10 for both. Arizona also protects the paint very well, having the 2nd best O2P% in the nation. Arizona has the 5th best offensive rebounding percentage in the nation, and the 8th best offensive efficiency in the nation.
Weaknesses: Arizona has two glaring weaknesses that could slip them up come later rounds. These include turnover percentage and three point shooting percentage. The rank 12th and 131st respectively in those stats. Arizona is also relatively young and inexperienced, including their coach.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Elite 8
Kansas Jayhawks
Record: 23-6
Projected Seed: 1
Record over the last 10 games: 6-4
BPI Rank: 12th
NET Rank: 6th
SOS Rank: 6th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 4th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 40th
Strengths: Kansas has played a tough schedule all year long, and is reflected in their 6th toughest schedule in the nation. Kansas also boasts the 4th best offense in the nation according to Ken Pom. Kansas can also count effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding and points per possession as strengths. Ranking 22nd, 21st and 17th in the nation respectively in those stats.
Weaknesses: Kansas is a little careless with the basketball at times, ranking 124th in the nation in turnover percentage. Kansas also doesn’t protect the paint at an elite level, ranking 133rd in the nation in opponent two point percentage. Kansas is also in a bit of a rut right now, where they have gone 6-4 over their last ten games. Granted, these games have been difficult run of games for any team.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in Sweet Sixteen
Baylor Bears
Record: 25-5
Projected Seed: 1
Record over the last 10 games: 7-3
BPI Rank: 5th
NET Rank: 3rd
SOS Rank: 10th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 9th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 11th
Strengths: Baylor has impressive metrics in all the seeding categories such as BPI, NET and SOS. Where they rank 5th, 3rd and 10th in the nation respectively. They can also count offensive rebounding as a strength, where they rank 9th in the nation. They also rank in the top 50 in the nation in effective field goal percentage and points per possession. Baylor also has 3 players who average over 13 points per game. Jeremy Sochan is a 1st round pick in the 2022 NBA draft.
Weaknesses: Baylor doesn’t take care of the basketball and ranks in the bottom half in the nation in committing turnovers. They rank 141st in the nation in turnover percentage. They also don’t protect the paint very well, despite having size down low. They rank 153rd in the nation in this stat. If Baylor goes up against a team that both protects the basketball and causes turnovers, and scores in the paint well, they might be in trouble. See the result against Kansas where they lost by 24.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in Elite Eight
Auburn Tigers
Record: 26-4
Projected Seed: 2
Record over the last 10 games: 7-3
BPI Rank: 11th
NET Rank: 11th
SOS Rank: 36th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 20th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 7th
Strengths: Auburn protects the paint very well, having the 7th best O2P% in the nation. They also have the 31st best offensive rebounding percentage in the nation. They also have Jabari Smith, who is projected to be a top 3 pick in the 2022 NBA draft.
Weaknesses: Auburn has two achilles’ heels: EFG% and three point percentage. Auburn ranks 128th in nation in EFG% and 275th in the nation in three point percentage. These two stats will be the downfall of this team this year.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Sweet Sixteen
Duke Blue Devils
Record: 26-4
Projected Seed: 2
Record over the last 10 games: 9-1
BPI Rank: 6th
NET Rank: 9th
SOS Rank: 57th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 2nd
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 19th
Strengths: If you put all the stats that are utilized in this post and made an average for each team, and then ranked that average among all tournament teams, Duke would have the highest rank. This means that Duke, overall, has the best ranking of all historical stats that indicate success in March. Duke ranks in the top 25 in the nation in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, three point percentage and points per possession. They rank 12th, 11th, 21st and 5th respectively in those categories. This means they take smart shots, don’t turn the ball over, make their three point shots and play efficient offense. They also have a legendary coach, Coach K, who happens to be retiring at the end of the year after what is probably the most illustrious career of a college basketball coach ever (save John Wooden). Not to mention Duke has two top 10 NBA prospects in Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin. They also have two other 1st round picks in Wendell Moore and Trevor Keels. This team is loaded with talent and are playing their best basketball right now.
Weaknesses: Of all the teams in the tournament this year, Duke has the least amount of weaknesses. Duke doesn’t rank outside the top 50 in any of the metrics or stats used in this post. They do have the 57th toughest schedule in the nation, but that is only because the ACC is having a down year.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: National Champions
Purdue Boilermakers
Record: 24-6
Projected Seed: 2
Record over the last 10 games: 7-3
BPI Rank: 9th
NET Rank: 12th
SOS Rank: 29th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 1st
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 100th
Strengths: Purdue has the best overall offense in the nation according to Ken Pom. Purdue also ranks 3rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage, 2nd in the nation in three point shooting and 1st in the nation in points per possession. In summary, this is a powerhouse team on offense that is only rivaled by Gonzaga. Their combination of taking smart shots, three pointers and offensive efficiency is a three headed dragon that no other team possesses at Purdue’s level. Purdue also has TWO seven footers on their team in Zach Eday and Trevion Williams (Williams is only 6’10’’ but he is a huge presence), and a top 5 draft pick in the 2022 NBA draft in Jaden Ivey. Ivey is as good as it gets at the college level, and he is super fun to watch.
Weaknesses: If you have never watched a basketball game, there are two sides of the basketball you can play on. One is offense, the other is defense. Unfortunately for Purdue, you also have to play defense in order to win games. Good thing for Purdue that their offense is SO good that their sometimes awful defense can be covered up. Purdue has the 100th best (or worst in this case) in the nation. It is really impressive that this team has such a good record with such a bad defensive rating. Surprisingly, Purdue doesn’t protect the paint well with two of the biggest players in terms of size in college basketball. They rank 142nd in the nation in protecting the paint. This will be this team's downfall, because if Purdue’s offense isn’t clicking they will still get scored on. Their offense alone will carry them for a couple of games, but their defense will catch up to them in the later rounds.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Sweet Sixteen
Kentucky Wildcats
Record: 24-6
Projected Seed: 2
Record over the last 10 games: 8-2
BPI Rank: 3rd
NET Rank: 5th
SOS Rank: 24th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 2nd
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 22nd
Strengths: Kentucky has the second best offense in the nation, only behind Purdue. Kentucky also has the second best offensive rebounding percentage in the nation. This is mainly due to Oscar Tshiebwe, who is in the Bracket Wizard’s mind, the player of the year. He is averaging 16.9 points per game and 15.3 rebounds per game. He is an absolute monster down low, and he is only 6’9’’! Kentucky also has a very efficient offense, where they rank 6th in the nation. Kentucky also has a reliable ball handler in Ty Ty Washington, who is projected to be in the 1st round of the 2022 NBA draft. They have the 40th best turnover percentage in the nation, which normally is one of their weaker areas because they are always such a young team.
Weaknesses: Outside of Duke, this is the team most ready for the tournament in terms of stats. Kentucky does not rank outside the top 75 in any of the stats highlighted in this post, but they do rank 72nd in the nation in three point percentage. If they are struggling from behind the arc, they can always feed Tshiebwe.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Final Four
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Record: 23-8
Projected Seed: 3
Record over the last 10 games: 7-3
BPI Rank: 13th
NET Rank: 10th
SOS Rank: 19th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 44th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 2nd
Strengths: Texas Tech can count defense as their strength, as well as their identity. Having the 2nd best defense in the nation according to KenPom, this team's identity is all about their defense. Few teams in the tournament will have the offense to break down such a great defense. As can be predicted, Texas Tech also excels at protecting the paint, ranking 13th in the nation in opponent two point percentage. Offensive rebounding can also be considered a strength as well, where they rank 24th in the nation.
Weaknesses: While offense isn’t necessarily a weakness, they also can’t be considered an elite offensive team. They rank 44th in the nation in offense. Turnovers, as well as three point shooting, are giant red flags for this team. Texas Tech ranks 261st in the nation in turnover percentage per offensive play, and 290th in the nation in three point shooting. With a potential 3 seed, this team will have their eyes on the championship. The Bracket Wizard believes these two issues will be hard to overcome to get anywhere near the title.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Sweet Sixteen
Villanova Wildcats
Record: 23-7
Projected Seed: 3
Record over the last 10 games: 8-2
BPI Rank: 7th
NET Rank: 7th
SOS Rank: 14th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 7th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 38th
Strengths: Once again, Jay Wright’s team has a very talented offense. Villanova ranks 7th in the nation in offense. Villanova also doesn’t turn the ball over, ranking 17th in the nation in turnover percentage. This can largely be attributed to the steady Colin Gillespie, who is as experienced as they come at point guard. Jay Wright loves his point guards, and Colin Gillespie will likely go down as one of the best Villanova guards of all time. Villanova can also count offensive efficiency as a strength, ranking 13th in the nation in points per possession. This team will be ready to compete, and have experience and talent in a lot of positions.
Weaknesses: Villanova does not have a lot of glaring red flags or weaknesses. Villanova does not protect the paint at an elite level, ranking 104th in the nation in opponent two point percentage. Villanova can also count offensive rebounding as a problem area, ranking 89th in the nation. While neither of these are glaring, both of these areas could present problems for Villanova in later rounds of the tournament when they play bigger teams..
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Elite Eight
Tennessee Volunteers
Record: 23-7
Projected Seed: 3
Record over the last 10 games: 9-1
BPI Rank: 8th
NET Rank: 8th
SOS Rank: 5th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 49th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 3rd
Strengths: Tennessee and Texas Tech are actually very similar teams by the metrics. They both have excellent defenses, where Tennessee is 3rd in the nation (Texas Tech is 2nd), and middling offenses, where Tennessee ranks 49th (Texas Tech is 44th). This is actually a greatly improved offensive team in recent weeks. The difference in these two teams is recent form. Tennessee has only lost 1 game in their last ten games, with wins over Kentucky, Auburn and Arkansas. Their only loss was @ Arkansas, who is one of the hotter teams in the nation at the moment. Tennessee can also count offensive rebounding as a strength, where they rank 26th in the nation. Tennessee has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, has an elite defense and grabs rebounds at a high rate.
Weaknesses: As mentioned previously, this team has improved on offense throughout the season, but at times Tennessee can get cold from the field. Tennessee doesn’t take the smartest shots at times, with a rank of 186th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. Tennessee can also be streaky with three pointers, where they rank 124th in the nation. If Tennessee’s shots are falling, like they were against Arkansas in the first half, this team is really hard to beat.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Elite 8
Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 24-6
Projected Seed: 3
Record over the last 10 games: 7-3
BPI Rank: 24th
NET Rank: 21st
SOS Rank: 9th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 41st
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 26th
Strengths: This is a drastically different team with or without Johnny Davis. The projected top 5 pick in the NBA draft is a real difference maker on this team. He is a top prospect and a real player in college basketball. If he doesn’t play the rest of the season, this could be a real issue for Wisconsin. Wisconsin is elite at keeping possession of the basketball, where they rank 2nd in the nation. Wisconsin has also played the 9th toughest schedule in the nation, and is really good at winning close games. They seem to thrive on it actually. See the Bracket Wizard’s previous post on “Early 2022 NCAA Tournament Predictions” on Wisconsin and their close game habit.
Weaknesses: Wisconsin is full of issues from a metrics and stats standpoint. They don’t rank in the top 25 in either offense or defense in the nation, which if you have read the section on the Bracket Wizard blog about “Choosing your Champion '', you will know the importance of having BOTH a top 25 offense and top 25 defense. Wisconsin has neither. Wisconsin also doesn’t take smart shots, where they rank 249th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They also aren’t great at offensive rebounding, where they rank 247th in the nation. The biggest issue with this team, outside of not having an elite offense or defense, is their three point shooting. They rank 277th in the nation in three point shooting percentage. If Johnny Davis isn’t playing, their issues will not be able to be covered up.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: With Johnny Davis, lose in Second Round. Without Johnny Davis, lose in the First Round.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 22-8
Projected Seed: 4
Record over the last 10 games: 7-3
BPI Rank: 15th
NET Rank: 14th
SOS Rank: 13th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 17th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 33rd
Strengths: The metrics seemingly agree with Illinois being a 4 seed. They are right around 15th or 16th in every metric utilized by the committee for seeding, so they are right where they are supposed to be from a seeding standpoint. Illinois boasts the 17th best opponent two point percentage in the nation, which means they protect the paint well. Kofi Cockburn is a big (literally) reason for that. Illinois is right outside the top 30 in both effective field goal percentage and points per possession in the nation. This is above average, but not elite. Illinois plays a pretty well rounded game, slightly leaning more toward the offense being more productive. Illinois also possesses two of the most experienced big time players in Kofi Cockburn and Trent Frazier, and they will be hungry not to repeat their second round exit as a 1 seed from a year ago.
Weaknesses: Illinois doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses for a 4 seed. Illinois doesn’t take the best care of the basketball when really under pressure, where they rank 125th in turnover percentage.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Sweet Sixteen
UCLA Bruins
Record: 23-6
Projected Seed: 4
Record over the last 10 games: 7-3
BPI Rank: 10th
NET Rank: 13th
SOS Rank: 58th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 15th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 12th
Strengths: UCLA is a rare breed as a 4 seed. Typically, 4 seeds will not be elite at both offense AND defense. It is rare for a 4 seed to have a top 25 offense AND top 25 defense according to KenPom. In fact, they rank inside the top 15 for both. UCLA also doesn’t turn the ball over, ranking 4th in the nation in turnover percentage. This shows how good their point guard play is, and Tyger Campbell is one of the best in the nation. This team is full of big game players, as was evidenced in last year's tournament. From the team that made it to the Final Four, ALL 5 starters have returned. Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell make up one of the most dynamic big three’s that are out there. They also have Jules Bernard who has greatly improved on the offensive end this year. The Bracket Wizard sees UCLA as the strongest projected 4 seed in the tournament.
Weaknesses: UCLA has only one glaring weakness; effective field goal percentage. UCLA ranks 151st in the nation in this stat, which could be an issue against a team who plays good half court defense. This is what happened in UCLA’s loss to USC. What is interesting, though, is that UCLA DOES possess an efficient offense. They rank 26th in the nation in points per possession. Rarely do these two stats conflict as greatly as they do in UCLA’s case.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Elite Eight
Uconn Huskies
Record: 22-8
Projected Seed: 4
Record over the last 10 games: 7-3
BPI Rank: 18th
NET Rank: 17th
SOS Rank: 42nd
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 24th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 35th
Strengths: Uconn protects the paint and rebounds the ball at an elite level. They rank 5th and 4th in the nation respectively in those areas. Uconn is also playing some of its best basketball of the season right now, and have only lost one game in their last seven. This includes a close win over Villanova.
Weaknesses: Uconn only has one major area of concern; taking smart shots. They rank 17th in the nation in effective field goal range. Uconn is a very well balanced team and do a lot of things at either an above average rate or average rate.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Second Round
Houston Cougars
Record: 7-3
Projected Seed: 5
Record over the last 10 games: 7-3
BPI Rank: 2nd
NET Rank: 4th
SOS Rank: 88th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 10th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 14th
Strengths: The stats and metrics absolutely love Houston. Houston is 2nd in BPI, 4th in NET, 10th in offense and 14th in defense. If you were looking at this without knowing what seed this team was projected to be, you would assume this is a 1 or 2 seed team. The stats also love Houston. Houston ranks 6th in the nation in opponent two point percentage, 1st in the nation in offensive rebounding and 10th in the nation in points per possession. This means that Houston protects the paint, rebounds missed shots and runs an efficient offense at an elite level. They are also above average at not turning the ball over, where they rank 33rd in the nation in turnover percentage. Every player on Houston is big, long and works harder than everyone else on the court. This is a top level team and is better than a 5 seed.
Weaknesses: Houston has one area of concern; three point shooting. Houston ranks 154th in the nation in three point shooting. If Houston starts settling for three’s and gets in a shootout against a superior three point shooting team, this could be how Houston exits the tournament.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Elite Eight
Arkansas Razorbacks
Record: 24-7
Projected Seed: 5
Record over the last 10 games: 8-2
BPI Rank: 19th
NET Rank: 23rd
SOS Rank: 52nd
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 46th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 15th
Strengths: It is a testament to how good the SEC is this year that Arkansas is somehow in 4th place in the conference. Arkansas is on a roll right now, despite losing a close one against Tennessee. Arkansas was down by over 20 points in this game, and came all the way back to make it a single possession game on an away court. JD Notae is such a gamer and loves when the pressure is on. There are few players that I would rather have taking my final shot of the game than that guy. Arkansas has an elite defense, where they rank 15th in the nation. Some of the stats working against Arkansas have been improved over the last month, and they don’t do just how hard this team will be to beat when the spotlight is on.
Weaknesses: On paper, Arkansas has two large blemishes. Both of these are offensive related issues. Arkansas doesn’t take smart shots and struggles behind the arc. They rank 211th in the nation in effective field goal percentage and 299th in three point percentage. Arkansas has a guy they can go to in the clutch, but if Arkansas struggles on offense like they have frequently throughout the year, it could be an early exit for them.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Sweet Sixteen
Saint Mary’s Gaels
Record: 24-6
Projected Seed: 6
Record over the last 10 games: 8-2
BPI Rank: 23rd
NET Rank: 19th
SOS Rank: 86th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 72nd
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 8th
Strengths: Despite the less than elite strength of schedule ranking, Saint Mary’s actually has some impressive wins that major conference teams don’t have. They have probably the best win of the field when they beat Gonzaga by 10 points. They also have wins over 4 other tournament teams: Oregon, BYU, San Francisco x2 and Notre Dame. Saint Mary’s has an elite defense, ranking 8th in the nation. They also protect the paint at an above average level, ranking in the top 50 in this area.
Weaknesses: The offensive rebounding is a glaring red flag for Saint Mary’s. They rank 218th in the nation in this area. What is also concerning is that they also don’t take the smartest shots, which can usually mask the offensive rebounding deficiency. They rank 77th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. Any team that can beat Gonzaga by 10 points at this point in the year is an incredible team. Their bracket placement will really impact how far this team goes. With a favorable matchup, this is a sweet sixteen team. This is also a top dark horse candidate along with the next team below.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in Sweet Sixteen
Iowa Hawkeyes
Record: 22-9
Projected Seed: 7
Record over the last 10 games: 8-2
BPI Rank: 16th
NET Rank: 18th
SOS Rank: 61st
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 6th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 78th
Strengths: Iowa is an elite offense. They do everything well on offense. They possess the best rank in the nation in effective field goal percentage and are 4th in the nation in points per possession. They take smart shots and run a smooth flowing, efficient offense. Iowa is built more like a cinderella than anything else, but they have a likely 7 seed. The Bracket Wizard typically doesn’t view dark horse and cinderella teams as having similar profiles, but I think that is the case for Iowa. Their offense is so good and so balanced that they will be able to spread the floor and get buckets in lots of different ways. The fact so much has been mentioned and Keegan Murray hasn’t been brought up speaks to how good this team is as a 7 seed. Keegan Murray is averaging 24 points per game and shooting over 55% from the field. He will have a solid NBA career.
Weaknesses: Iowa lives under the adage that the best defense is a really good offense. While that typically isn’t an effective way to win basketball games, Iowa has done pretty well for some of the issues they have on defense. They rank 78th in the nation in defense. They also don’t protect the paint well, where they rank 176th in the nation. Fran McCafrey is an offensive minded coach, so their defense is actually better than it has been in recent years.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Sweet Sixteen
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record: 22-9
Projected Seed: 8
Record over the last 10 games: 8-2
BPI Rank: 50th
NET Rank: 46th
SOS Rank: 53rd
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 39th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 69th
Strengths: Notre Dame is the top team in the ACC, having been crowned at least a share of the regular season title. The ACC is down this year, but typically the top dog in the ACC does well in the NCAA tournament. Notre Dame is either above average or average in a lot of things, but not elite at any of the stats that predict success in the tournament. Blake Wesley is an elite guard that will be in the NBA.
Weaknesses: Notre Dame has one very alarming weakness, and one red flag. To start with, their greatest weakness is offensive rebounding, where they rank 330th in the nation. This is very nearly dead last in the nation. They do have the 46th best effective field goal percentage in the nation, which may account for such a lack of offensive rebounding numbers. They also don’t protect the paint well, where they rank 159th in the nation in opponent two point percentage.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Second Round
Seton Hall Pirates
Record: 20-9
Projected Seed: 8
Record over the last 10 games: 8-2
BPI Rank: 32nd
NET Rank: 32nd
SOS Rank: 38th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 63rd
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 30th
Strengths: We are getting to the nitty gritty of the tournament. There has to be a winner in the 8 vs 9 seeds, and there is a reason these teams are 8 or 9 seeds. Typically this means teams that are in the average categories for a lot of metrics and stats, and typically they don’t do anything at an elite level. Enter Seton Hall. Well Seton Hall has an above average defense, ranking 30th in the nation, they don’t really do anything at an elite level. The closest thing they are to elite at predictive stats is protecting the paint, where they rank 25th in the nation. Seton Hall also rebounds the ball on offense at an above average rate, where they rank 35th in the nation.
Weaknesses: This is an 8 seed we are talking about. And this isn’t a team who should actually be seeded higher because they are a mid-major team that is overlooked by the committee (talking about you Murray State!). Seton Hall has several glaring red flags. They have the 271st ranked effective field goal percentage in the nation and the 212th ranked three point shooting percentage in the nation. Their offense can get clogged down and go through scoring droughts. Seton Hall has won their last 5 games.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Second Round
Murray State Racers
Record: 30-2
Projected Seed: 9
Record over the last 10 games: 10-0
BPI Rank: 28th
NET Rank: 24th
SOS Rank: 262nd
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 43rd
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 28th
Strengths: This may turn out to be a case where a mid-major team gets overlooked and receives a seed that totally doesn’t match their resume. This team only has 2 losses all year, and have lost in 20 games. I don’t care who you have played, this is impressive at the D-1 level. I get the 262nd strength of schedule working against them, but the other metrics indicate they are much better than a 9 seed. The Bracket Wizard sees Murray State more as a 6 seed than a 9 seed. Murray State has the 28th best BPI and 24th best NET in the nation. The can also count offensive rebounding and offensive efficiency as strengths, where they rank 17th and 18th respectively in these areas. They also boast the 28th best defense in the nation according to KenPom. Their combination of elite offensive rebounding, points per possession and defense is rare for a 9 seed.
Weaknesses: Other than their overly easy schedule, where they rank 262nd in strength of schedule in the nation. They don’t protect the paint well. They rank 181st in the nation in opponent two point percentage. Their three point shooting is also below average, whre they rank 148th in the nation.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: If Murray State matches up against Auburn or Kansas as 1 seeds; Lose in the Sweet Sixteen. If they see Gonzaga or Arizona, they will lose in the Second Round
TCU Horned Frogs
Record: 19-11
Projected Seed: 9
Record over the last 10 games: 4-6
BPI Rank: 46th
NET Rank: 49th
SOS Rank: 27th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 77th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 25th
Strengths: Outside of Murray State and Notre Dame, the Bracket Wizard doesn’t have too much faith in the other 8 or 9 seeds. Usually one of the worst seeds to receive in the tournament due to the fact that if a team wins their 8 vs 9 matchup, they have to play a 1 seed next. TCU got the nod over Wyoming due to the strength of schedule and defense. TCU has the 27th hardest schedule in the nation and has the 25th best defense in the nation. TCU does rebound on offense at an elite level, where they rank 3rd in the nation.
Weaknesses: So so many alarming issues. TCU has the 236th worst effective field goal percentage in the nation, they have the 293rd worst turnover percentage in the nation and they have the 325th worst three point shooting percentage in the nation. They don’t take smart shots, they turn the ball over and shoot the three at poor rates, closer to the worst in the nation than the middle. There is a reason they are a 9 seed and why these types of teams normally get the worst seed based on position in the bracket.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Second Round
North Carolina Tar Heels
Record: 23-8
Projected Seed: 10
Record over the last 10 games: 8-2
BPI Rank: 33rd
NET Rank: 39th
SOS Rank: 51st
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 25th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 88th
Strengths: Make no mistake, this is a much different North Carolina team than the one that lost 3 of 5 games back at the beginning of the down conference play of the ACC. North Carolina is one of the hottest teams in the country and will likely be a VERY popular cinderella pick this year. North Carolina, for the record, is NOT a cinderella program. They are a sleeping giant that is now just starting to wake up. North Carolina has won 7 of its last 8 games, including a win @ Duke for Coach K’s last game in Cameron Stadium. North Carolina has a solid offensive team, led by big man Armando Bacot. They have the 25th best offense in the nation. They also shoot the three at an above average rate, and have an above average offensive efficiency. They rank 31st and 33rd in the nation respectively in those areas. I feel bad for the high seed team that has to play North Carolina in the Second Round.
Weaknesses: North Carolina’s defense can be seen as a weakness, where they rank 88th in the nation. They also protect the paint at a below average rate, having the 132nd worst rank in opponent two point percentage. For a projected 10 seed, that is not a lot of weakness. The Bracket Wizard projects the Tar Heels to win their conference tournament and end up with a 6 or 7 seed. This would be a fair seed for this hot Tar Heel program.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Sweet Sixteen
Davidson Wildcats
Record: 25-5
Projected Seed: 10
Record over the last 10 games: 8-2
BPI Rank: 53rd
NET Rank: 44th
SOS Rank: 135th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 14th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 152nd
Strengths: Of all the potential double digit seeds to enter the NCAA tournament this year, there is no other team built more like a historical cinderella team than Davidson. The three stats that indicate cinderella success more than any are: effective field goal percentage, three point shooting percentage and points per possession. A top 25 offense in the nation as a double digit seed is also a good indicator for potential success. Here are Davidson’s stats:
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 13th
Three Point Shooting Percentage: 12th
Points Per Possession: 9th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 14th
Davidson checks all of the boxes with flying colors. If history is any indicator of success, Davidson will be this year’s most likely cinderella.
Weaknesses: Defense and defensive stats. Davidson ranks 152nd in the nation in defense, and ranks 270th in the nation in protecting the paint. As a cinderella, defense hasn’t been the most important factor in determining success however. If Davidson matches up with a team like Purdue in the Second Round, it could be a real shoot out favoring Davidson.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Sweet Sixteen
Michigan Wolverines
Record: 17-13
Projected Seed: 11
Record over the last 10 games: 6-4
BPI Rank: 28th
NET Rank: 37th
SOS Rank: 8th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 19th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 82nd
Strengths: For being a projected 11 seed with a 17-13 record, Michigan runs a pretty good offense. They have the 19th best offense in the nation, and are in the top 50 in offensive efficiency. They also have the played the 8th hardest schedule in the nation and will have seen every type of playing style possible. Michigan has had a rough month, with their coach being suspended for the regular season. It will be interesting to see how the team responds when he returns. Michigan has quite a few quality wins, some that higher seeds don’t have. Michigan has wins over Purdue (where they won by 24), San Diego State, @ Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers, @ Ohio State.
Weaknesses: Michigan has a below average defense, ranking 82nd in the nation. Their one glaring weakness, and that is protecting the paint. They rank 228th in the nation in opponent two point percentage. They also struggle at three point shooting at times, where they rank 167th in the nation. Their overall record isn’t appealing either, where they currently sit 17-13. They also have a couple bad losses in there including: Minnesota, @ UCF.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in Second Round
Memphis Tigers
Record: 19-9
Projected Seed: 11
Record over the last 10 games: 9-1
BPI Rank: 27th
NET Rank: 41st
SOS Rank: 66th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 60th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 34th
Strengths: Memphis can count defense as a strength, where they rank 34th in the country. They also excel in protecting the paint and offensive rebounding. They rank 14th in opponent two point percentage and 7th in offensive rebounding in the nation. Penny Hardaway has assembled a big team and will beat you up on the boards. Memphis is also on a roll right now, where they have won 9 of their last 10 games. This includes two wins over Houston. If you are looking for a team that has potential to win a couple games as a play-in team, this would be a team to seriously look into.
Weaknesses:
The Bracket Wizard’s projection:
Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Record: 25-7
Projected Seed: 11
Record over the last 10 games: 7-3
BPI Rank: 29th
NET Rank: 31st
SOS Rank: 118th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 31st
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 48th
Strengths: Please review the “Early Predictions for the 2022 NCAA Tournament” post for more information on Loyola Chicago’s chances of being this year’s cinderella. Loyola Chicago, just like Davidson, is built to be a cinderella. They have the 4th best effective field goal percentage in the country. They have the 7th best three point shooting percentage in the nation, and the 22nd best points per possession in the country. They also possess the 31st best offense in the country. Looking at historical cinderella teams, like Loyola Chicago in 2017, these four stats are the SINGLE best indicator of success as a double digit seed. Loyola Chicago is elite in ALL of these areas.
Weaknesses: Partially due to the fact that Loyola does not settle for shots and have such an effective offense, they rank 260th in the nation in offensive rebounding. They make a large majority of the shots they take, so they don’t need to rebound that frequently. They do, however, turn the ball over at a high rate. They rank 182nd in the nation in turnover percentage.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in Sweet Sixteen
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Record: 30-4
Projected Seed: 12
Record over the last 10 games: 10-0
BPI Rank: 60th
NET Rank: 71st
SOS Rank: 259th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 13th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 215th
Strengths: South Dakota State is built like Davidson and Loyola Chicago; they have a highly effective offense, they take smart shots and hit the three at a high rate. South Dakota State has the best effective field goal percentage in the nation, they have the best three point shooting percentage in the nation and they have the 3rd best points per possession in the nation. The Jackrabbits also didn’t lose a game in their conference, going 18-0 in the Summit League. They also won their conference tournament. This team hasn’t played anyone in the tournament in the last couple of months, but this team will be full of confidence. The Bracket Wizard believes their overly impressive stats is good for a win in the tournament, especially against a 5 seed.
Weaknesses: See Davidson and Loyola Chicago. They have the 215th ranked defense in the nation. They also don’t protect the paint well and don’t rebound the offensive glass. They rank 201st and 315th respectively in those areas. They could also struggle against a team like Arkansas or Houston, who are long and big. If South Dakota State sees either of these two teams, they will lose. There are other 5 seeds, like Alabama or Texas, who they could out score in a single elimination game.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Second Round
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Record: 18-12
Projected Seed: 12
Record over the last 10 games: 6-4
BPI Rank: 70th
NET Rank: 82nd
SOS Rank: 12th
Ken Pom Offense Rank: 111th
Ken Pom Defense Rank: 39th
Strengths: I want to set the record straight about Rutgers come tournament time; Rutgers doesn’t fit the profile of a double digit seed that will win a game in the tournament. This team is chalk FULL of red flags and don’t do anything overly well. The Bracket Wizard is going out of his comfort zone with Rutgers. Stats and metrics are the lifeblood of the Bracket Wizard, much like evidence is the lifeblood of a good detective! What Rutgers does have, however, is two really big game players. If you haven’t heard of Geo Baker or Ron Harper Jr yet, you need to start watching college basketball. These two guys live for the big moment, as was evidenced by Rutgers' run in February when Rutgers beat Michigan State by 21, Ohio State, @ Wisconsin and Illinois back to back to back to back. Outside of this run, Rutgers best two things going for them are their tough strength of schedule, 23rd in the nation, and protecting the paint, 40th in the nation in opponent two point percentage.
Weaknesses: SO MANY. Rutgers has the 111th ranked offense in the nation, 210th effective field goal percentage in the nation, 110th ranked offense rebounding in the nation, 172nd ranked three point shooting percentage in the nation, and 170th points per possession in the nation. Not to mention the bad losses Rutgers possesses (which is by far the worst of any at-large teams in the tournament): They lost to Depaul, Lafayette, UMass, @ Penn State, @ Minnesota, Maryland and @ Northwestern. For all the good wins Rutgers has, they possess equally disappointing losses. I don’t trust Rutgers, but I trust Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Second Round
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Record: 23-8
Projected Seed: 10
Record Over the Last 10 Games: 6-4
BPI Rank: 31st
NET Rank: 42nd
SOS Rank: 77th
Ken Pom Offensive Rank: 30th
Ken Pom Defensive Rank: 55th
Strengths: Wake Forest fits the profile of a cinderella. Not to the extent of Loyola Chicago, Davidson or South Dakota State, but Wake Forest does have the profile to a lesser degree. Wake Forest has the 30th ranked offense in the nation, they have the 10th best effective field goal percentage, 86th ranked three point percentage in the nation and the 23rd ranked points per possession in the nation.
Weaknesses: Two glaring weaknesses. Wake Forest ranks 218th in turnover percentage in the nation and 172nd in the nation in offensive rebounding.
The Bracket Wizard’s projection: Lose in the Second Round
The Bracket Wizard predicts that the following teams will not win a game in the 2022 NCAA Tournament barring an extremely favorable matchup:
Providence Friars- Projected Seed: 4
Texas Longhorns- Projected Seed: 5
Alabama Crimson Tide- Projected Seed: 5
LSU Tigers- Projected Seed: 6
Ohio State Buckeyes- Projected Seed: 6
USC Trojans- Projected Seed: 6
Marquette Golden Eagles- Projected Seed: 7
Michigan State Spartans- Projected Seed: 7
Iowa State Cyclones- Projected Seed: 7
Boise State Broncos- Projected Seed: 8
Colorado State Rams- Projected Seed: 8
Xavier Musketeers- Projected Seed: 9
Wyoming Cowboys- Projected Seed: 9
San Francisco Dons- Projected Seed: 10
Creighton Bluejays- Projected Seed: 11
San Diego State- Projected Seed: 12
SMU Mustangs- Projected Seed: 12
North Texas Mean Green- Projected Seed: 12
Vermont- Projected Seed: 13
Iona- Projected Seed: 13
Toledo- Projected Seed: 13
All the 14 seeds
All the 15 seeds
All the 16 seeds
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